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Climate promises are difficult to keep. Scotland is the most recent, perhaps most surprising, example.
Scotland, an early industrial power and a coal-burning giant, was also one of the first to adopt an ambitious, legally binding government target to curb climate change. It had promised to reduce its planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions by 75 percent by 2030, compared with 1990 levels.
This week, its Net Zero minister, Màiri McAllan, said that goal was now “out of reach”. She said Scotland, which operates semi-autonomously from Britain, would scrap its annual emissions reduction targets and instead review them every five years.
This is in stark contrast to the Scottish Government’s optimism in 2021, when diplomats from around the world gathered in Glasgow for the United Nations international climate talks. At the time, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon called Scotland’s climate targets “not only among the most ambitious in the world, but they are also among the strictest”.
The setback shows how difficult it can be for governments to deliver on their ambitious promises to reduce emissions, despite the growing urgency to act as climate change rapidly warms the world and fuels extreme weather.
Far beyond Scotland, the setback will be reflected in global climate diplomacy. It could reinforce claims by some emerging economies, whose emissions continue to rise, that historic polluters, such as Scotland, are not doing enough to reduce their fair share.
There are also internal political ramifications in an election year in Scotland. It is an embarrassment for the ruling coalition, led by the Scottish National Party, which favors greater independence from Britain, of which Scotland is a part.
So what happened?
The Climate Change Committee, an independent body appointed by the British Parliament, said several weeks ago that Scotland had repeatedly delayed its climate plans and had not reduced emissions quickly enough in most sectors of the economy. Scotland’s 2030 targets, the committee said in mid-March, “They are no longer credible.”
Emissions have already fallen dramatically in Scotland. In 2021, they were 49 percent lower than in 1990. The problem is that that is not fast enough to be in line with the government’s goals.
The committee said that while the electricity sector had reduced emissions (Scotland has a lot of wind power), Scotland was not on the way in reducing emissions from other sectors. He had not made enough progress in installing heat pumps to replace natural gas for heating. And transportation emissions were not falling fast enough, in part because he lacks concrete plans to reduce dependence on cars, which was part of his plans.
Scotland, contrary to its promises, had also not done enough to restore peatlands, which trap significant amounts of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas warming the world.
Speaking in Parliament on Thursday, Ms McAllan, the Scottish minister, said Scotland remained “firm” on its long-term goal of being completely emissions neutral by 2045. That remains one of the most ambitious targets in the world . However, the Climate Change Committee concluded that “there is no comprehensive strategy” to get there.
