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CONCORD, NH – President Joe Biden’s push to despoil New Hampshire his prized role at the start of the nominations calendar has left some of his biggest backers here divided over how to respond.
One approach that is gaining momentum — rallying support for a write-in campaign — is increasingly seen as a risky proposition that could only serve to underscore Biden’s vulnerability in the face of the general elections.
Biden’s name will not be on the New Hampshire ballot on January 23. The state decided to skip the order that the Democratic Party — and the president — wanted for the primary calendar. In doing so, she faces sanctions of the Democratic National Committee.
For organizers of a new “Write-In Joe Biden” campaign, the so-called grassroots effort is a way not only to demonstrate the depth of support for Biden but also to test organizing efforts ahead of the biggest fight. big thing coming. next November, when New Hampshire’s electoral votes could be crucial.
“It’s really about making sure that we have the foundation built so that in November we can win in New Hampshire and get those four electoral votes,” Jim Demers, one of the leaders of the write-in campaign, said in an interview. “It’s critical that the president has a really good, solid performance.”
But others fear the exercise could only fail, either because Biden fails to achieve the kind of convincing victory an incumbent should hope for or because Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota, the leading Democratic challenger whose name is on the ballot, wins an outright victory. on primary day.
One of those Democrats, who requested anonymity to discuss concerns about Biden’s situation, referred to historical precedent. In 1968, President Lyndon Johnson was also not on the New Hampshire ballot. Although Johnson won nearly 50% of the vote as a write-in candidate, Senator Eugene McCarthy’s surprisingly strong second-place finish was an ominous sign of Johnson’s waning support. Just weeks later, Johnson announced that he would not seek a second full term.
Phillips hopes history repeats itself.
“A relatively unknown senator from Minnesota came here in 1968 for very similar reasons: a president who was very unpopular. Young people completely angry and disenfranchised because their voices are not being heard regarding the Vietnam War,” Phillips told NBC News when asked about Biden’s writing effort. “I’m in this to win it. I intend to do it, but if that opens the door for someone who is better qualified to do it and the voters decide that, I will support that person the same way I am supporting my campaign.”
There is also a third camp: former Biden supporters who have already largely defected in protest of his primary snub.
“I understand why he wants to run in South Carolina. He owes a lot to that state and its congressional delegation. But I don’t see the point of writing on behalf of Joe Biden when he basically said, ‘I want to end his first primary in the country,’” said Stephen Shurtleff, former speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives. whom Biden endorsed in the crowded 2020 Democratic primary. “I look at it as asking us to reward negative behavior.”
Biden’s first two presidential campaigns, in 1988 and 2008, did not last long enough for him to compete in the New Hampshire primary. In 2020, fearing another disappointing finish after stumbling in Iowa, Biden left the state even before polls closed on Election Day to plant his flag in South Carolina.
His dominant victory there nearly three weeks later was a surprising springboard to the Democratic nomination, a fact that did not go unnoticed by Democrats when he rewarded South Carolina with the top voting spot in 2024.
New Hampshire Secretary of State Dave Scanlan made it official Wednesday that his state celebrate their primaries on January 23challenging Biden’s preferred pecking order, which would have forced the state to share its primary date with Nevada.
Scanlan’s ad included some less-than-subtle attacks on Biden and the Democratic National Committee. He spoke before a series of flags that New Hampshire had carried to the battlefields of South Carolina during the Civil War.
“We did not take away anyone’s first primary in the country and we will defend it vigorously,” Scanlan said.
Biden’s campaign says it is not involved in the registration effort; Instead, she said, she is focusing on states that follow the Democratic National Committee’s preferred schedule, such as South Carolina. Vice President Kamala Harris underscored this on Friday with a last-minute trip to personally present Biden’s paperwork in South Carolina.
Ray Buckley, chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, downplayed the risks to Biden of remaining off the New Hampshire ballot.
“We always enjoy a strong primary,” said Buckley, who said he has written on Jimmy Carter’s behalf every four years since he took over as party chairman. “I think New Hampshire Democrats are very excited about writing about Joe Biden. I think that’s what they’re going to do. But there is a lot of time between now and January 23.”
Demers said write-in organizers have seen strong early support for their campaign since launching it two weeks ago. He said the group hopes to raise enough money by the primary for staffing and voter education efforts, but to be successful it would also need more significant funding for paid advertising.
“There has been talk that there are groups that are interested. Therefore, we hope that this grassroots effort will also be augmented by independent expenditures,” he said.
Demers said the group has another goal in mind: helping convince national Democrats ahead of decisions on the 2028 calendar that New Hampshire deserves its prized starting role.
“If the voters of New Hampshire, the Democrats of New Hampshire, come out and write to the president and show that they still want to be a part of this process, that gives us a story to tell,” he said.
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